January 1, 2023 Rundown

1. Good overview of latest arms sales package to Taiwan

   1. DCSA announced sale worth $180 million of mine-laying weapons, anti-tank munitions, and cargo trucks to Taiwan.

   2. Anti-tank system could be used to mine some of the dozen Taiwanese beaches China may attempt to land on during an invasion.

   3. This arms package is the eighth sale approved by President Biden and tracks closely with Washington’s call for Taiwan to invest more in asymmetrical capabilities.

   4. Related: China In Arms Substack on why these are the wrong weapons to give Taiwan

2. Adam Tooze’s blog on the continued decline of the United Kingdom

   1. Tooze writes: “The shock of 2016 cannot by itself explain what really ought to alarm us, namely the astonishing stagnation in productivity and real incomes that now stretches back over more than a decade.”

   2. Since the 2000s the UK has seen an unprecedented collapse in real income growth and productivity.

   3. Shot: “Nick Crafts and Terence Mills conclude that the current productivity slowdown in the UK is the worst not only in the last 120 years, but in the last 250 years [TPC] i.e. since the industrial revolution of the 18th century.”

   4. Chaser: “The most obvious common factor in explaining the UK’s miserable trajectory is that it represents the accumulated consequences of a sustained failure to invest.”

3. Lula inaugurated while Bolsonaro hides out in Orlando

   1. “Mr. Bolsonaro was supposed to pass Mr. Lula the presidential sash on Sunday, an important symbol of the peaceful transition of power in a nation…[but] Mr. Bolsonaro woke up Sunday 6,000 miles away, in a rented house…a few miles from Disney World.”

   2. Bolsonaro is linked to five separate inquiries ranging from accusations of releasing classified material to attacking voting machines and now loses the prosecutorial immunity he had while president.

4. Possible U.S. - South Korea joint exercises following spate of North Korea missile launches

   1. “South Korea and the United States are discussing possible joint planning and exercises using U.S. nuclear assets.”

   2. This discussion comes in the wake of Kim Jong Un calling for new ICBMs, a larger nuclear arsenal, and recent missile tests.

   3. Related: War on the Rocks podcast about nuclear proliferation in Asia

5. Israel missile strike shuts down Damascus International Airport

   1. Israel fired missiles at Damascus Airport for the second time in several months “to prevent arms shipments from Iran to militant groups backed by Tehran.”

   2. “The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said four people were killed in the strike.”

   3. “Israel says an Iranian presence on its northern frontier is a red line that justifies its strikes on facilities and weapons inside Syria.”